Housing Slump Makes For Buyer's Market

CBS Evening News: With Prices And Mortgage Rates Declining, More People Are Shopping For, If Not Buying, Homes

DJ CME Lumber Review: Ends Mostly Higher In Light Rolling

The nearby January contract settled down $1.70 per 1,000 board feet at $172.50, while March ended up $4.30, or 2.31%, at $190.70.

Focus on Philly: Majority Say It’s a Good Time to Buy in Survey

66 percent of respondents said that it’s a good time to buy a home in the Greater Philadelphia market.

DJ CME Lumber Review: Ends Quiet Session Mixed

The nearby January contract settled up $1.00 per 1,000 board feet at $175.50, while March ended down $0.40 at $191.50. May closed $2.00 higher at $204.50.

FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE AGENCY News Release

U.S. MONTHLY HOUSE PRICE INDEX ESTIMATES 1.1 PERCENT PRICE DECLINE FROM SEPTEMBER TO OCTOBER

Sales of New Houses in U.S. Dropped to 17-Year Low in November

Purchases dropped 2.9 percent to an annual pace of 407,000, lower than forecast...

Existing-Home Sales and Prices Overview

November 2008 sales rates, actual totals and median prices by month going back 12 months.

Home prices plunge as sales slow sharply

Median price for existing homes falls record 13% to $181,000

U.S. Preview: No End in Sight for New and Existing Home Sales Declines

The ongoing turmoil in credit markets and record low builder confidence have economists forecasting a continued slide for both new and existing home sales in the U.S.

White House Fires Back at Times Over Housing Meltdown Story

The New York Times, in a lengthy weekend article, places much of the blame for the sub-prime mortgage mess and Wall Street collapse on the Bush administration.

DJ CME Lumber Review: Prices Higher In Light, Speculative Buying

Chicago Mercantile Exchange lumber futures prices ended higher Monday but off the three-week highs they set near the open amid light, speculative buying.

Building materials distributor 84 Lumber shutters more stores, plants

Building materials distributor 84 Lumber Inc. shuttered seven facilities in Ohio, Indiana, Florida, Alabama, Wisconsin and Tennessee in its latest move to weather the construction slump

KB Home leaving metro Atlanta market

Metro Atlanta’s seventh-largest home builder is pulling out of the market.

Homebuilder sentiment remains at record low

Job losses, foreclosures discourage prospects of a housing turnaround

Prediction: Housing market to recover in 2009

“In 2009, housing will not only recover, but we’ll see buyers leap into this market in droves, depleting our housing oversupply, and actually putting higher price pressures on the market.”

Wells Fargo CEO says housing may be bottoming

Wells Fargo & Co Chief Executive John Stumpf said on Wednesday the U.S. housing market may be bottoming

Housing sector shows improvement in October

Despite mounting job losses and a consistently weakening economy, the housing sector fared slightly better than expected in October.

Foreclosure relief unlikely until Obama in office

With job losses mounting and lawmakers preparing to funnel money to Detroit automakers, a top House Democrat said Monday that a new government effort to help borrowers avoid foreclosure will have to wait until after President-elect Barack Obama takes office.

Five thousand coastal forest workers face winter layoffs

Permanent mill closures and job losses inevitable in the battered sector, forestry consultant warns

Pending Sales of Existing Homes in U.S. Fell 0.7% (Bloomberg)

Fewer Americans signed contracts to buy previously owned homes in October as credit markets seized, signaling the housing slump will extend into a fourth year.

Pending Home Sales Index

Pending Home Sales Index Overview

DJ CME Lumber Review: Higher; Off Highs As Demand Fades

...lumber futures prices closed higher but off the day's highs Monday as buying interest ran out in a slow session.

Construction spending outlook worsens

Construction spending dropped 1.2% in October and will drop as much or more in November since contractors laid off 82,000 workers in November and reduced the average workweek by almost half an hour.

DJ CME Lumber Review: Ends Mixed After Setting New Lows

The nearby January contract ended unchanged at $178.90, while March settled $0.10 higher, at $189.70.

U.S. Treasury says eyeing several housing programs

Lowering U.S. mortgage rates through a program relying on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is just one of several options the U.S. Treasury is considering to support housing

DJ CME Lumber Review: Ends Lower After Quiet, Aimless Session

The nearby January contract fell $1.60 per 1,000 board feet to close at $184.00, while March settled $3.40, or 1.71%, lower, at $195.60.

U.S. MBA’s Mortgage Applications More Than Doubled Last Week

Mortgage applications in the U.S. surged by a record last week as lending rates plunged after the Federal Reserve pledged to buy mortgage-backed debt.

Construction spending fell again in October

U.S. construction spending continued to fall in October, signaling more weakness in the housing market and the economy as a whole.

Distributors shutter branches, lay off workers as downturn deepens

Even before the financial crisis struck in September, the ongoing slump in the residential housing market wrought havoc on construction-related businesses.

Manufacturing, housing continue to sag

construction spending fell 1.2% in October, outpacing the 0.3% decline in September.

Lumber markets look overseas

With the housing market in a cool-down mode due to the recent economic downturn, homebuilders are buying fewer materials

CME Lumber Review: Sharply Lower On Weak Stocks, Cash

CME lumber futures closed sharply lower Monday as steep declines in the Dow Jones Industrial Average added to pressure from a nearly lifeless cash market.

Arkansas sawmills slow with housing decline

Like their counterparts elsewhere, Arkansas sawmills are struggling to survive

DJ CME Lumber Review: One-Month Low Closes In Jan Thru May

CME lumber futures closed lower Friday in the most active months January through May, and one-month low closes were hit in those contracts.

Housing Hit to U.S. Economy Nearing End, Economist Minack Says

The U.S. housing-market slump has been so severe it’s almost “impossible” for declines in residential construction to hurt the world’s largest economy as much in 2009

Forestry industry braces for continued declines

Year-over-year sales of Alberta forest products continued to slide in the third quarter

DJ CME Lumber Review: Lower On Increased Selling Late, Stops

Lumber futures closed lower in most months Wednesday amid a late round of selling that sent prices to their lows in the final hour.

DJ CME Lumber Review: Narrowly Mixed In Light-Volume Trade

CME lumber futures Tuesday again closed narrowly mixed as the market consolidates ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.

Fed unveils $800 billion plan to bolster lending, housing

Move aims to normalize rate spreads for asset-backed securities

Home prices tumble by record in 3Q

Worst may be yet to come amid Wall Street's collapse

HOME PRICES SLIDE FURTHER IN SUMMER MONTHS

U.S. home prices fell 1.8 percent in the third quarter of 2008
from the previous quarter, according to FHFA’s seasonally-adjusted purchase-only
house price index, which is based on data from repeat home sales.

BMHC closing, consolidating facilities

...the Building Materials Holding Corp. is closing several operations and continuing to restructure its business...

Are Housing Prices Back to Normal? Two Measures Offer Differing Answers

...lobbyists push for a new “stimulus” package that would include tax credits and mortgage interest rate subsidies for buyers of new and existing homes.

Housing industry wants a big government bailout

The proposals are designed to get buyers off the fence and rejuvenate the flagging home sale market.

More housing aid sought as prices sink further

WASHINGTON (AP) — With nationwide sales of existing homes falling more than expected last month and the median sales price plunging to $183,000, the U.S. housing market keeps getting worse.

Lumber Prices YTD vs. Timber ETFs

table includes a year-to-date analysis for near-month CME Random Length Lumber Futures (LB), Claymore/Clear Global Timber ETF (CUT), iShares S&P Global Timber & Forestry ETF (WOOD), and the S&P 500 ETF (SPY).

Housing woes are bad but will likely get worse, some economists predict

Martin Feldstein thinks that both home prices and the broader economy can - and very likely will - get a whole lot worse.

Bernanke Tells New Yorker He Underestimated Housing Meltdown

... underestimated the impact subprime mortgages would have on the economy...

Economic indicator portends more bad news for builders

The construction industry received more grim news this week as a key indicator of architecture billings dipped to an all-time low.

DJ CME Lumber Review: Ends Narrowly Mixed In Featureless Trade

The nearby January contract rose $0.30 per 1,000 board feet to close at $197.90, while March settled $1.20 lower, at $213.30.

Lumber firm Louisiana-Pacific slashes capex, jobs

Lumber firm Louisiana-Pacific slashes capex, jobs

U.S. Housing Starts, Permits Drop to Record Low Pace

Construction starts on housing fell 4.5 percent in October, less than economists forecast, to an annual rate of 791,000 that was the lowest since records began in 1959

U.S. Demand for Architects Falls; Billings Index Dips to Record

Demand for U.S. architectural services, a leading construction indicator, dropped for the ninth month

Wolseley cuts 5,000 jobs, 2,300 more to go

said on Tuesday it had cut 5,000 staff in its first quarter and would shed another 2,300

Housing’s Health Meter Is Near Empty

There's probably little that's more difficult than absorbing the random shotgun blasts of housing data that hit us monthly or weekly

More negative signs for US housing market

...reports showed U.S. home prices sinking in four out of five cities and homebuilders reported their worst-ever business outlook.

LP cuts 200 jobs in wake of housing bust

LP has eliminated about 200 salaried positions, which represents about 14 percent of its salaried workforce

DJ CME Lumber Review: Narrowly Mixed In Quiet Session

The nearby January contract fell $0.40 to close at $207.00,

More closures reported for Stock Building Supply

The latest reports take the total number of closures to 30.

DJ CME Lumber Review: Narrowly Mixed In Quiet Session

DJ CME Lumber Review: Narrowly Mixed In Quiet Session

Ainsworth Lumber Q3 net loss widens to $43M as U.S. home slump cuts sales

Despite job cuts and other-cost cutting, third-quarter losses at Ainsworth Lumber Co. Ltd. (TSX:ANS) deepened by 16 per cent

Triangle housing starts cut in half

Builders started 2,069 new homes in the region in the quarter, down from 4,418 a year ago.

Builder Confidence In Multifamily Market Slips In Third Quarter

Faltering Economy, Oversupply of Units Hurt Rental and Condo Markets

Builders FirstSource falls after Moody's downgrade

Moody's Investment Service cut its debt rating further into junk territory on concerns about cash flow and liquidity

Mortgage rates fall for a second week

Freddie Mac reports 30-year, fixed home loans average 6.14 percent

DJ CME Lumber Review: Ends Mixed After Featureless Trade

...lumber futures prices closed mixed Wednesday after a quiet, featureless session...

US housing agencies widen homeowner help

.. a plan to ease mortgage payments for troubled borrowers through mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac ...

Citi unveils housing relief plan

Banking giant steps up efforts to avoid foreclosures

Realtors introduce stimulus plan

... a temporary $7,500 tax credit for all buyers, with no repayment requirement, and a temporary federal buy-down of mortgage rates to 4.5 percent or less...

DJ CME Lumber Review: Narrowly Mixed After Featureless Trade

The nearby November contract ended lower $0.50 per 1,000 board feet at $186.20. The January contract rose $0.30 to close at $201.60…

NAR lowers sales, construction forecast

the National Association of Realtors lowered its expectations for existing-home sales to 5.02 million in 2008 and new-home sales to 487,000 as unemployment concerns grew

U.S. housing prices to stabilize in 2009-Greenspan

…U.S. housing prices, which have been hit hard by the financial crisis, will stabilize in the first half of 2009…

Pending Sales of Existing Homes in U.S. Fell 4.6%

Fewer Americans signed contracts to buy previously owned homes in September, indicating the credit crisis will inflict more damage on the housing market.

DJ CME Lumber Review: Heavy Selling Hits Nearby Contracts Hard

KANSAS CITY, Nov 06, 2008 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex)
...most contracts ending lower and the nearby positions down sharply...

Mortgage rates fall

Rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages drop to 6.20% from 6.46%, expected to remain firm.

Weyerhaeuser to indefinitely close mill in Colbert, Ga.

...said Thursday it is indefinitely closing its iLevel Veneer Technologies facility ...

Mortgage applications fell 20.3% last week: MBA

rates on fixed-rate mortgages increased, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported on Wednesday.

Many non-residential construction projects on hold

Credit problems have frozen numerous projects nationally

DJ CME Lumber Review: Ends Higher Amid Widespread Short Covering

Chicago Mercantile Exchange lumber futures prices Wednesday closed higher amid widespread short covering and general buying, brokers said

Stock Building Supply closes four Idaho operations

Stock Building Supply, based in Raleigh, N.C., will close four branches in Idaho by the end of next week.

Sales of Assets Keep Weyerhaeuser Afloat in 3Q08

After selling two divisions for $461 million in the third quarter

Louisiana Pacific posts wider 3Q loss

LP ... reported a wider third-quarter loss on Tuesday as demand for its wood products plunged due to the slump in the U.S. housing market...

DJ CME Lumber Review: Ends Mostly Higher On General Buying Day

Chicago Mercantile Exchange lumber futures prices closed mostly higher Tuesday

Sales of Custom Homes on the Rebound

A marked increase in pre-soldcustom-built homes appears to be on the rise.

Economist sees sign of U.S. housing spiral reaching bottom

'We appear to be much closer to the end than the beginning,'

Canada lumber producers eye holiday shutdowns

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Nov 3

Housing Affordability Close to 4-Year High in September

Bernanke explores options for housing finance
New system will need better safeguards, say Federal Reserve chairman

Norsask Forest lays off 62 workers
Official blames downturn in U.S. housing market

Canfor sees lots of red ink ahead after net loss balloons to $94.2 million in Q3
VANCOUVER, B.C. — Lumber giant Canfor Corp. (TSX:CFP) sees more red ink ahead as the U.S. housing market continues to slump and credit remains tight

DJ CME Lumber Review: Mixed; Most-Active Nearbys Lower
Chicago Mercantile Exchange lumber futures prices closed mixed Friday with the most-active nearby months lower.

Year-end curtailment hits 2,000 sawmill workers

Canfor shutting down 12 sawmills for two weeks

Stock Building closing La Grange store

Stock Building Supply is closing its showroom and lumber yard in La Grange, Ky., as part of a companywide restructuring.

As housing permits and starts fall, there is less demand for building materials used in new home construction. Without significant reductions in building material availability to reduce supply, prices of those materials will fall. There currently seems to be excess supply at every level of the building material chain, from the producers to the end users.

The lumber chart below illustrates the result of prices falling as demand from new construction falls, while the supply does not decrease.

Yesterday, there were more lumber contracts traded than there were total just five years ago. This tells us that an usually large number of lumber futures participants are placing bets. There were more participants willing to bet on lower lumber prices than higher lumber prices, which drove the price to a "limit down" state, halting further trades. I think that the large volume, coupled with the fact that it was “limit down” day, indicates that lumber prices will continue to fall.
The total number of contacts being traded (bets being placed) is falling as well, indicating that fewer participants have an opinion about whether lumber will go up or down.
Falling lumber prices make it more challenging for us, our suppliers and our customers. Buyers at each level who might buy think it is better to wait for even lower prices, less revenue is generated for the unit volume being sold and profits generated from those sales are less.

Links 10/18/2008

Starts, permits fall 70% from peak - Lowest single-family construction activity since 1982
1982http://www.inman.com/news/2008/10/17/starts-permits-fall-70-peak

Housing & Economic Links:

ARC’s 2007 Population and Housing Report: A Primer
http://www.atlantaregional.com/documents/pah2007.pdf


NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION
http://www.census.gov/const/newresconst.pdf

NEW HOME SALES
http://www.census.gov/const/www/newressalesindex.html

EXISTING HOME SALES
http://www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/Pages/EHSdata

NAHB Housing and Interest Rate Forecast 2005-2010
http://www.nahb.org/fileUpload_details.aspx?contentID=75231